Can Bitcoin Hit $1 Million? Insights from Bitwise’s CIO on Key Conditions
In a recent memo, Matt Hougan, the chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, suggested that Bitcoin could potentially reach $1 million per coin if it captures a significant portion of the global store-of-value market.
Summary
- Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise, predicts that Bitcoin may reach $1 million if it secures around 17% of the global store-of-value market.
- This analysis positions Bitcoin in competition with gold, the current leader in the store-of-value sector.
- Bitcoin’s market share may increase due to greater acceptance driven by spot Bitcoin ETFs and institutional investments.
Bitcoin’s Path to $1M Relies on Gold’s Market: Insights from Bitwise CIO
In a memo titled “How Bitcoin Gets to $1 Million,” Hougan claims that Bitcoin’s long-term value depends significantly on its competition with traditional store-of-value assets like gold and government bonds.
He estimates that the global store-of-value market is valued around $38 trillion, with Bitcoin currently holding a small fraction of that total.
The majority is held by gold, which he identifies as Bitcoin’s main competitor.
Hougan suggests that if the store-of-value market grows to roughly $120 trillion in the next decade and Bitcoin manages to capture about 17% of that, its price could rise to approximately $1 million per coin.
He believes this scenario is increasingly likely, highlighting the rapid institutional adoption of Bitcoin in recent years.
A key factor driving this adoption has been the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the U.S., which have made the asset class more accessible to pension funds, financial advisors, and other institutional investors who previously found it difficult to enter crypto markets.
According to Hougan, these changes have allowed Bitcoin to emerge as a credible macro asset, alongside traditional stores of value. As institutional investments grow and interest in non-sovereign assets rises globally, Bitcoin could gradually increase its market share within the wider store-of-value environment.
“From my perspective, the baseline assumption—that the store-of-value market will keep growing as it has, and Bitcoin will continue to increase its market share as it already is—suggests significantly higher prices than what we see today,” Hougan remarked.
The memo does not outline a specific timeline for achieving the $1 million mark but suggests that it could be realistic within about a decade if Bitcoin adoption continues to rise and the overall store-of-value market expands.
