Goldman’s currency analysts say market is fearing Election Night uncertainty too much

Goldman Sachs currency analysts say the market is fearing uncertainty over the U.S. election too much. “We think the market appears to be pricing too high of a probability that it will take a long time to sort out the winner. We agree this is certainly a tail risk, but a number of states-including some key Battlegrounds-allow votes to be processed and counted well before Election Day. Taken together with cross-state correlation on many sources of polling errors, it seems likely that markets will have enough information on Election Night or soon thereafter to gauge the likely winner, even if the race takes longer to be officially called,” said analysts Michael Cahill and Alec Phillips.

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